Chidule:Kusagwirizana pakati pa kupereka ndi kufunikira ndi chimodzi mwa zifukwa zomwe zimayambitsa kukwera kwa mitengo ya nickel, koma kumbuyo kwa msika woopsa, zongopeka zambiri mumakampani ndi "zochuluka" (zotsogoleredwa ndi Glencore) ndi "zopanda kanthu" (makamaka ndi Tsingshan Group)..
Posachedwapa, ndi mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine monga fusesi, LME (London Metal Exchange) tsogolo la nickel linayambika mumsika "wopambana".
Kusagwirizana pakati pa kupereka ndi kufunidwa ndi chimodzi mwa zifukwa zomwe zimayambitsa kukwera kwa mitengo ya faifi tambala, koma kumbuyo kwa msika woopsa, zongopeka zambiri m'makampaniwa ndikuti mphamvu zazikulu za mbali ziwirizi ndi "ng'ombe" (motsogoleredwa ndi Glencore) ndi " opanda" (makamaka Tsingshan Gulu).
Kumaliza kwa nthawi ya msika wa nickel LME
Pa Marichi 7, mtengo wa nickel wa LME udakwera kuchokera ku US $ 30,000/ton (mtengo wotsegulira) kupita ku US $ 50,900 / toni (mtengo wokhazikika), kuwonjezeka kwa tsiku limodzi pafupifupi 70%.
Pa Marichi 8, mitengo ya faifi ya LME idapitilira kukwera, kukwera mpaka kufika pa US$101,000/tani, kenako kugweranso ku US$80,000/ton.M'masiku awiri amalonda, mtengo wa nickel wa LME udakwera mpaka 248%.
Nthawi ya 4:00 pm pa Marichi 8, LME idaganiza zoyimitsa malonda a tsogolo la nickel ndikuyimitsa kubweretsa mapangano onse a nickel omwe adayenera kuperekedwa pa Marichi 9.
Pa Marichi 9, Tsingshan Gulu idayankha kuti ilowa m'malo mwa mbale yachitsulo ya nickel yapanyumba ndi mbale yake yayikulu ya nickel, ndipo yapereka malo okwanira kuti atumizidwe kudzera munjira zosiyanasiyana.
Pa Marichi 10, LME idati ikukonzekera kuthetsa maudindo aatali komanso aafupi asanatsegulenso malonda a nickel, koma mbali zonse ziwiri zidalephera kuyankha bwino.
Kuyambira pa Marichi 11 mpaka 15, nickel ya LME idapitilira kuyimitsidwa.
Pa Marichi 15, LME idalengeza kuti mgwirizano wa nickel uyambiranso pa Marichi 16 nthawi yakomweko.Tsingshan Group yati ilumikizana ndi syndicate of liquidity credit for Tsingshan's nickel holding margin and fixed needs.
Mwachidule, Russia, monga wofunikira wogulitsa zinthu za faifi tambala, idaloledwa chifukwa cha nkhondo yaku Russia ndi Chiyukireniya, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti nickel yaku Russia isaperekedwe pa LME, yopangidwa ndi zinthu zingapo monga kulephera kubwezeretsanso zida za nickel mu. Kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia munthawi yake, madongosolo opanda kanthu a Tsingshan Gulu la hedging mwina sangathe Kuperekedwa pa nthawi yake, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti anthu azitsatira.
Pali zizindikiro zosiyanasiyana zosonyeza kuti chochitika ichi chotchedwa "kufinyidwa kwachidule" sichinathe, ndipo kuyankhulana ndi masewera pakati pa okhudzidwa aatali ndi aifupi, LME, ndi mabungwe azachuma akupitirirabe.
Potengera izi ngati mwayi, nkhaniyi iyesa kuyankha mafunso awa:
1. Chifukwa chiyani chitsulo cha nickel chimakhala cholinga chamasewera akuluakulu?
2. Kodi kupereka kwa faifi tambala ndikokwanira?
3. Kodi kukwera kwa mtengo wa nickel kudzakhudza bwanji msika wamagalimoto atsopano?
Nickel ya batri yamphamvu imakhala mtengo watsopano wokulirapo
Ndi kukula kwachangu kwa magalimoto amphamvu padziko lonse lapansi, komwe kumapangitsa kuti ma nickel achuluke komanso otsika a cobalt m'mabatire a ternary lithiamu, faifi yamagetsi yamagetsi ikukhala gawo latsopano lakugwiritsa ntchito faifi tambala.
Makampaniwa akuneneratu kuti pofika chaka cha 2025, batire yamagetsi yapadziko lonse lapansi idzawerengera pafupifupi 50%, pomwe mabatire apamwamba a nickel ternary adzawerengera oposa 83%, ndipo gawo la 5-series ternary batire lidzatsika mpaka 17%.Kufunika kwa faifi kudzakweranso kuchokera ku matani 66,000 mu 2020 mpaka matani 620,000 mu 2025, ndikukula kwapakati pachaka kwa 48% mzaka zinayi zikubwerazi.
Malinga ndi zonenedweratu, kufunikira kwa nickel padziko lonse lapansi kwa mabatire amagetsi kudzakweranso kuchoka pa 7% pakali pano kufika pa 26% mu 2030.
Monga mtsogoleri wapadziko lonse lapansi pamagalimoto amagetsi atsopano, machitidwe a "nickel hoarding" a Tesla atsala pang'ono kupenga.Mtsogoleri wamkulu wa Tesla, Musk, adanenanso nthawi zambiri kuti zida za nickel ndiye botolo lalikulu kwambiri la Tesla.
Gaogong Lithium adawona kuti kuyambira 2021, Tesla adagwirizana motsatizana ndi kampani yamigodi ya ku France New Caledonia Proni Resources, chimphona chamigodi ku Australia BHP Billiton, Brazil Vale, kampani yamigodi ya ku Canada Giga Metals, mgodi waku America Talon Metals, ndi zina zambiri. Makampani angapo amigodi asayina mapangano angapo operekera kwanthawi yayitali kwa ma nickel amayang'ana.
Kuphatikiza apo, makampani omwe ali mumndandanda wamabatire amagetsi monga CATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, ndi Tsingshan Group akuwonjezeranso mphamvu zawo pazachuma.
Izi zikutanthauza kuti kuwongolera chuma cha faifi tambala n'chimodzimodzi ndi kudziŵa bwino chiphaso cha mathiriliyoni a madola.
Glencore ndi wamalonda wamkulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi wamalonda komanso m'modzi mwa omwe amakonzanso zinthu zokhala ndi faifi tambala padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo ali ndi mbiri ya migodi yokhudzana ndi faifi ku Canada, Norway, Australia ndi New Coledonia.katundu.Mu 2021, ndalama za nickel za kampaniyo zidzakhala US $ 2.816 biliyoni, chiwonjezeko chaka ndi chaka pafupifupi 20%.
Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa LME, kuyambira pa Januware 10, 2022, kuchuluka kwa malisiti osungiramo zinthu zakale a nickel omwe amasungidwa ndi kasitomala m'modzi wakwera pang'onopang'ono kuchoka pa 30% kufika pa 39%, ndipo pofika kuchiyambi kwa Marichi, kuchuluka kwa malisiti osungiramo katundu adapitilira 90%. .
Malingana ndi kukula uku, msika ukuganiza kuti ng'ombe mu masewera aatali awa ndi omwe angakhale Glencore.
Kumbali imodzi, Gulu la Tsingshan laphwanya luso lokonzekera la "NPI (nickel pig iron from laterite nickel ore) - high nickel matte", yomwe yachepetsa kwambiri mtengo wake ndipo ikuyembekezeka kuphwanya mphamvu ya nickel sulfate pa faifi tambala. (zokhala ndi faifi tambala zosachepera 99.8%, zomwe zimadziwikanso kuti nickel primary).
Kumbali ina, 2022 idzakhala chaka chomwe ntchito yatsopano ya Tsingshan Group ku Indonesia idzayamba kugwira ntchito.Tsingshan ali ndi chiyembekezero champhamvu chakukula kwa mphamvu yake yopanga yomwe ikumangidwa.Mu Marichi 2021, Tsingshan adasaina mgwirizano wopereka faifi wa nickel wokwera ndi Huayou Cobalt ndi Zhongwei Co., Ltd. Tsingshan adzapereka matani 60,000 a nickel matte apamwamba kwa Huayou Cobalt ndi matani 40,000 ku Zhongwei Co., Ltd. pasanathe chaka chimodzi kuchokera pa Okutobala 202 Mtengo wapamwamba wa nickel.
Tiyenera kudziwa kuti zofunikira za LME pazogulitsa faifi tambala ndi faifi tambala, ndipo faife wokwera kwambiri ndi chinthu chapakatikati chomwe sichingagwiritsidwe ntchito pobweretsa.Qingshan pure nickel imatumizidwa makamaka kuchokera ku Russia.Nickel yaku Russia idaletsedwa kuchita malonda chifukwa cha nkhondo yaku Russia ndi Ukraine, ndikupangitsa kuti dziko lapansi likhale lotsika kwambiri la nickel, zomwe zidayika Qingshan pachiwopsezo cha "palibe katundu woti asinthe".
Ndi chifukwa cha ichi kuti masewera aatali a nickel metal ali pafupi.
Global nickel reserves ndi supply
Malinga ndi United States Geological Survey (USGS), pofika kumapeto kwa 2021, nkhokwe za nickel zapadziko lonse (zotsimikizirika za malo ozikidwa pa nthaka) zili pafupifupi matani 95 miliyoni.
Pakati pawo, Indonesia ndi Australia ali ndi matani pafupifupi 21 miliyoni motsatana, omwe amawerengera 22%, akuyika awiri apamwamba;Dziko la Brazil limapanga 17% ya faifi tambala wosungira matani 16 miliyoni, kukhala wachitatu;Russia ndi Philippines amawerengera 8% ndi 5% motsatana.%, pa nambala yachinayi kapena yachisanu.Maiko 5 apamwamba amakhala ndi 74% yazinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi.
Ndalama za faifi tambala zaku China zili pafupifupi matani 2.8 miliyoni, zomwe ndi 3%.Monga ogula kwambiri zinthu za faifi tambala, dziko la China limadalira kwambiri katundu wa faifi tambala kuchokera kunja, ndi kuitanitsa kunja kwa 80% kwa zaka zambiri.
Malinga ndi chikhalidwe cha ore, nickel ore amagawidwa kukhala nickel sulfide ndi nickel laterite, ndi chiŵerengero cha 6:4.Yoyamba imapezeka makamaka ku Australia, Russia ndi madera ena, ndipo yotsirizirayi ili makamaka ku Indonesia, Brazil, Philippines ndi madera ena.
Malinga ndi msika wogwiritsa ntchito, kufunikira kunsi kwa nickel ndiko kupanga chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri, ma aloyi ndi mabatire amagetsi.Zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri zimakhala pafupifupi 72%, ma alloys ndi ma castings pafupifupi 12%, ndipo faifi tambala wa mabatire ndi pafupifupi 7%.
M'mbuyomu, panali njira ziwiri zodziyimira pawokha pagulu la faifi tambala: "latterite nickel-nickel pig iron/nickel iron-stainless steel" ndi "nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".
Nthawi yomweyo, msika wogulitsira ndi kufunikira kwa nickel nawonso pang'onopang'ono ukukumana ndi kusalinganika kwamapangidwe.Kumbali imodzi, mapulojekiti ambiri a nickel pig iron opangidwa ndi ndondomeko ya RKEF agwiritsidwa ntchito, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale chitsulo chochuluka cha nickel pig iron;kumbali ina, yoyendetsedwa ndi chitukuko chofulumira cha magalimoto atsopano amphamvu, mabatire Kukula kwa nickel kwachititsa kuti pakhale kusowa kwa nickel koyera.
Deta yochokera ku lipoti la World Bureau of Metal Statistics ikuwonetsa kuti padzakhala zowonjezera matani 84,000 a nickel mu 2020. Kuyambira mu 2021, kufunikira kwa nickel padziko lonse kudzakwera kwambiri.Kugulitsa kwa magalimoto amagetsi atsopano kwathandizira kukula kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka faifi tambala, ndipo kusowa kwazinthu pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi wa nickel kudzafika matani 144,300 mu 2021.
Komabe, ndi kupambana kwaukadaulo wapakatikati wopangira zinthu, njira yomwe tatchulayi yapawiri ikuphwanyidwa.Choyamba, ore otsika a laterite ore amatha kupanga faifi tambala sulphate kudzera mu chonyowa chapakatikati chopangidwa ndi HPAL;chachiwiri, ore apamwamba kwambiri a laterite amatha kupanga chitsulo cha nickel nkhumba kudzera mu njira ya RKEF pyrotechnic, kenako ndikudutsa mu converter kuwomba kuti apange matte apamwamba a nickel, omwe amapanga nickel sulfate.Imazindikira kuthekera kogwiritsa ntchito nickel ore ya laterite mumakampani atsopano amagetsi.
Pakalipano, ntchito zopanga pogwiritsa ntchito teknoloji ya HPAL zikuphatikizapo Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, ndi zina. -cobalt projekiti yoperekedwa ndi Yiwei ndi ntchito zonse za HPAL.
Kuphatikiza apo, pulojekiti yapamwamba ya nickel matte yotsogozedwa ndi Tsingshan Gulu idayikidwa, yomwe idatsegulanso kusiyana pakati pa faifi tambala ndi faifi tambala sulfate, ndipo anazindikira kutembenuka kwa faifi tambala nkhumba chitsulo pakati zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri ndi mafakitale mphamvu zatsopano.
Malingaliro amakampani ndikuti pakapita nthawi, kutulutsidwa kwamphamvu yopanga nickel matte sikunafike paukulu wochepetsera kusiyana kwa zinthu za nickel, ndipo kukula kwa nickel sulfate kumadalirabe kusungunuka kwa faifi tambala. nyemba za nickel/nickel powder.sungani machitidwe amphamvu.
M'kupita kwa nthawi, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa nickel m'madera achikhalidwe monga zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri kwakhalabebe kukula, ndipo chikhalidwe cha kukula mofulumira m'munda wa mabatire a ternary mphamvu ndi otsimikizika.Mphamvu yopangira pulojekiti ya "nickel pig iron-high nickel matte" yatulutsidwa, ndipo pulojekiti ya HPAL idzalowa mu nthawi yochuluka yopanga zinthu zambiri mu 2023. Kufunika kwakukulu kwa zinthu za nickel kudzasunga mgwirizano wolimba pakati pa kupereka ndi kufunikira mu m'tsogolo.
Zotsatira za kukwera kwamitengo ya faifi tambala pamsika watsopano wamagalimoto amagetsi
Ndipotu, chifukwa cha kukwera mtengo kwa nickel, Tesla's Model 3 yapamwamba-performance version ndi Model Y yautali wamoyo, mawonekedwe apamwamba ogwiritsira ntchito mabatire apamwamba a nickel onse awonjezeka ndi 10,000 yuan.
Malinga ndi GWh iliyonse ya high-nickel ternary lithiamu batire (potengera NCM 811 monga chitsanzo), matani 750 azitsulo a faifi tambala amafunikira, ndipo GWh iliyonse ya sing'anga ndi otsika faifi tambala (5 mndandanda, 6 mndandanda) ternary lithiamu mabatire amafuna 500-600 matani achitsulo a nickel.Ndiye mtengo wamtengo wa nickel ukuwonjezeka ndi 10,000 yuan pa tani yachitsulo, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti mtengo wa mabatire a ternary lithiamu pa GWh ukuwonjezeka ndi pafupifupi 5 miliyoni yuan kufika 7.5 miliyoni yuan.
Kuyerekeza kosautsa ndi kuti pamene mtengo wa nickel ndi US $ 50,000 / tani, mtengo wa Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) udzawonjezeka ndi 10,500 yuan;ndipo mtengo wa nickel ukukwera ku US $ 100,000 / tani, mtengo wa Tesla Model 3 udzawonjezeka.Kuwonjezeka kwa pafupifupi 28,000 yuan.
Kuyambira 2021, kugulitsa kwapadziko lonse kwa magalimoto amagetsi atsopano kwakula, ndipo kulowetsedwa kwa msika wamabatire amagetsi a nickel kwakula kwambiri.
Makamaka, magalimoto apamwamba amagetsi akunja amatengera njira yaukadaulo ya nickel, zomwe zapangitsa kuti mabatire apamwamba kwambiri pamsika wapadziko lonse awonjezereke, kuphatikiza CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, Samsung SDI, SKI ndi makampani ena otsogola a batri ku China, Japan ndi South Korea.
Ponena za zotsatira zake, kumbali imodzi, kutembenuka kwaposachedwa kwa chitsulo cha nickel pig iron to high matte nickel kwachititsa kuti pakhale kutulutsidwa kwapang'onopang'ono kwa mphamvu zopanga polojekiti chifukwa cha chuma chosakwanira.Mitengo ya Nickel ikupitilirabe kukwera, zomwe zithandizira kupanga mapulojekiti apamwamba a nickel matte ku Indonesia kuti apititse patsogolo kutulutsa.
Kumbali ina, chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu, magalimoto amphamvu atsopano ayamba kukweza mitengo pamodzi.Makampaniwa nthawi zambiri amakhala ndi nkhawa kuti ngati mtengo wa zida za nickel ukupitilirabe kupesa, kupanga ndi kugulitsa mitundu yamtundu wa nickel yapamwamba yamagalimoto amphamvu zatsopano zitha kuwonjezeka kapena kuchepetsedwa chaka chino.
Nthawi yotumiza: Apr-12-2022