Chidule:Kuyambira kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 1900, ndi kupita patsogolo kopitilira muyeso kwaukadaulo wa zida za fakitale komanso kutukuka kwachangu kwamakampani opanga mphamvu zatsopano, njira yapadziko lonse lapansi yamakampani a nickel yasintha kwambiri, ndipo mabizinesi omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama ku China atenga gawo lofunikira pakukweza. kusintha kwa mtundu wa fakitale ya nickel padziko lonse lapansi.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, yathandizanso kwambiri pachitetezo chapadziko lonse lapansi cha faifi tambala.
Lemekezani Msika ndi Kulemekeza Msika——Momwe Mungasinthire Chitetezo cha Nickel Supply Chain cha China kuchokera ku "Nickel Futures Incident"
Kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa zaka za zana latsopano, ndi kupambana mosalekeza kwa ukadaulo wa zida zama fakitale komanso kutukuka kwachangu kwamakampani opanga mphamvu zatsopano, njira yapadziko lonse lapansi ya nickel yasintha kwambiri, ndipo mabizinesi omwe amathandizidwa ndi China achita gawo lofunikira kwambiri kulimbikitsa kukonzanso kwa makampani a fakitale padziko lonse lapansi.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, yathandizanso kwambiri pachitetezo chapadziko lonse lapansi cha faifi tambala.Koma mtengo wa tsogolo la nickel ku London mu Marichi chaka chino udakwera ndi 248% zomwe sizinachitike m'masiku awiri, zomwe zidawononga kwambiri makampani enieni kuphatikiza China.Kuti izi zitheke, kuchokera pakusintha kwamakampani a faifi tambala m'zaka zaposachedwa, kuphatikiza ndi "zochitika zam'tsogolo za nickel", wolemba amalankhula za momwe angapititsire chitetezo chaunyolo wa nickel waku China.
Zosintha pamachitidwe amakampani a nickel padziko lonse lapansi
Pankhani ya kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe amamwa, kugwiritsa ntchito faifi kwakula kwambiri, ndipo dziko la China ndilomwe likuthandizira kwambiri pakugwiritsa ntchito faifi padziko lonse lapansi.Malinga ndi ziwerengero za Nickel Industry Branch ya China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, mu 2021, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa faifi tambala padziko lonse kudzafika matani 2.76 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 15.9% ndi 1.5 kuwirikiza mu 2001. Iwo, mu 2021, China yaiwisi nickel mowa adzafika matani 1.542 miliyoni, chaka ndi chaka chiwonjezeko 14%, 18 kuwirikiza mowa mu 2001, ndi chiwerengero cha mowa padziko lonse chawonjezeka kuchokera 4.5% mu 2001 mpaka panopa 56. %.Titha kunena kuti 90% ya kuchuluka kwa nickel padziko lonse lapansi kuyambira kumayambiriro kwa zaka za zana latsopano kudachokera ku China.
Malinga ndi momwe amagwiritsira ntchito, kugwiritsa ntchito zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri kumakhala kokhazikika, ndipo chiwerengero cha nickel chomwe chimagwiritsidwa ntchito m'munda wa batri chikuwonjezeka.M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, gawo lamagetsi latsopano likutsogola kukula kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka faifi tambala padziko lonse lapansi.Malinga ndi ziwerengero, mu 2001, mu kapangidwe ka faifi tambala ku China, faifi tambala wa zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri anali pafupifupi 70%, faifi tambala wa electroplating anali 15%, ndi faifi tambala kwa mabatire ndi 5%.Pofika chaka cha 2021, chiwerengero cha nickel chomwe chimagwiritsidwa ntchito muzitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri pakugwiritsa ntchito nickel ku China chidzakhala pafupifupi 74%;chiŵerengero cha faifi tambala ogwiritsidwa ntchito m’mabatire chidzakwera kufika pa 15%;gawo la faifi tambala wogwiritsidwa ntchito popanga electroplating lidzatsika mpaka 5%.Sizinayambe zawonekerapo kuti pamene mafakitale atsopano a mphamvu akulowa mumsewu wofulumira, kufunikira kwa nickel kudzawonjezeka, ndipo chiwerengero cha mabatire mumayendedwe ogwiritsira ntchito chidzawonjezeka.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro amtundu wazinthu zopangira, zida za nickel zasinthidwa kuchokera ku nickel sulfide ore makamaka kupita ku laterite nickel ore ndi nickel sulfide ore zomwe zimalamuliridwa pamodzi.Zinthu zakale za nickel zinali makamaka nickel sulfide ore yokhala ndi chuma chambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo zida za nickel sulfide zidakhazikika makamaka ku Australia, Canada, Russia, China ndi mayiko ena, zomwe zimawerengera zoposa 50% ya nkhokwe zonse zapadziko lonse lapansi panthawiyo.Kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa zaka za zana latsopano, ndi kugwiritsa ntchito ndi kulimbikitsa teknoloji ya laterite nickel ore-nickel-iron ku China, laterite nickel ore ku Indonesia ndi Philippines yapangidwa ndikugwiritsidwa ntchito pamlingo waukulu.Mu 2021, dziko la Indonesia lidzakhala dziko lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi lopanga faifi tambala, zomwe ndi zotsatira za kuphatikiza kwaukadaulo waku China, likulu ndi zinthu zaku Indonesia.Mgwirizano wapakati pa China ndi Indonesia wathandiza kwambiri pakukula ndi kukhazikika kwa msika wapadziko lonse wa faifi tambala.
Kuchokera pamawonekedwe azinthu, zinthu za faifi tambala pagawo lozungulira zikukula mosiyanasiyana.Malinga ndi ziwerengero za Nthambi ya Nickel Industry, mu 2001, mu kupanga faifi yapadziko lonse lapansi, nickel woyengedwa adakhala ndi udindo waukulu, kuphatikizapo, gawo laling'ono linali ferronickel ndi nickel salt;pofika chaka cha 2021, pakupanga faifi tambala wapadziko lonse lapansi, kupanga faifi woyengedwa kwatsika mpaka 33%, pomwe gawo la NPI (nickel pig iron) lomwe lili ndi faifi lakwera kufika 50%, komanso nickel-iron ndi faifi tambala. mchere umakhala 17%.Zikuyembekezeka kuti pofika chaka cha 2025, kuchuluka kwa faifi woyengedwa padziko lonse lapansi kutsika kwambiri.Kuphatikiza apo, potengera kapangidwe kazinthu zaku China, pafupifupi 63% yazogulitsa ndi NPI (chitsulo cha nickel pig iron), pafupifupi 25% yazogulitsa ndi faifi woyengedwa, ndipo pafupifupi 12% yazogulitsa ndi mchere wa nickel.
Potengera kusintha kwa mabungwe amsika, mabizinesi azinsinsi akhala akugwiritsa ntchito nickel ku China komanso padziko lonse lapansi.Malinga ndi ziwerengero zochokera ku Nthambi ya Nickel Industry, pakati pa matani 677,000 a nickel ku China mu 2021, mabizinesi asanu apamwamba kwambiri, kuphatikiza Shandong Xinhai, Qingshan Viwanda, Delong Nickel, Tangshan Kaiyuan, Suqian Xiangxiang, ndi Guangxi Yinyi, omwe adapanga pulayimale. nickel.ndi 62.8%.Makamaka potengera kapangidwe ka mafakitale akunja, mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono amapitilira 75% yamabizinesi omwe ali ndi ndalama zakunja, komanso kupangidwa kwa chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri cha nickel-nickel-iron-stainless steel kwapangidwa ku Indonesia.
"Nickel futures event" imakhudza kwambiri msika
Zowonongeka ndi zovuta zowululidwa
Choyamba, mtengo wa tsogolo la nickel LME unakwera mwamphamvu kuyambira pa Marichi 7 mpaka 8, ndikuwonjezeka kwa 248% m'masiku awiri, zomwe zidapangitsa kuyimitsidwa kwa msika wam'tsogolo wa LME komanso kukwera ndi kugwa kosalekeza kwa faifi tambala wa Shanghai pa Shanghai Futures. Kusinthana.Mtengo wam'tsogolo sikuti umangotaya tanthauzo lake pamtengo wamalo, komanso umabweretsa zopinga ndi zovuta kuti mabizinesi agule zida zopangira ndi hedging.Zimasokonezanso kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka faifi tambala kumtunda ndi kunsi kwa mtsinje, zomwe zimawononga kwambiri faifi tambala padziko lonse lapansi komanso zinthu zomwe zimagwirizana kumtunda ndi pansi.
Chachiwiri ndi chakuti "chochitika cha tsogolo la nickel" ndi chifukwa cha kusowa kwa chidziwitso chowongolera zoopsa zamakampani, kusowa kwa chidwi chamakampani pamsika wamtsogolo wazachuma, kusakwanira kowongolera ziwopsezo pamsika wamtsogolo wa LME, komanso kukwera kwa kusintha kwa geopolitical. .Komabe, kuchokera kuzinthu zamkati, chochitikachi chawonetsa vuto lomwe msika wamakono akumadzulo akumadzulo uli kutali ndi malo opangira ndi kugwiritsira ntchito, sungathe kukwaniritsa zofunikira zamakampani enieni, komanso chitukuko cha tsogolo la nickel derivatives sichinapitirire. ndi chitukuko ndi kusintha kwa makampani.Pakalipano, chuma chotukuka monga Kumadzulo sali ogula kwambiri zitsulo zopanda chitsulo kapena opanga zazikulu.Ngakhale kuti malo osungiramo katundu ali padziko lonse lapansi, malo ambiri osungiramo katundu ndi makampani osungiramo katundu amayendetsedwa ndi amalonda akale a ku Ulaya.Nthawi yomweyo, chifukwa chosowa njira zowongolera zoopsa, Pali zoopsa zobisika pamene makampani amagwiritsa ntchito zida zawo zam'tsogolo.Kuonjezera apo, chitukuko cha zotumphukira za nickel sichinapitirire, zomwe zawonjezeranso kuopsa kwa malonda a makampani okhudzana ndi nickel okhudzana ndi zotumphukira akamagwiritsa ntchito kusunga mtengo wazinthu.
Za Kukweza Nickel Supply Chain yaku China
Zolimbikitsa Zina kuchokera ku Nkhani Zachitetezo
Choyamba, tsatirani kuganiza mozama ndikuchitapo kanthu popewa komanso kuwongolera ngozi.Makampani osakhala achitsulo ali ndi mawonekedwe a malonda, internationalization ndi zachuma.Chifukwa chake, mabizinesi am'mafakitale akuyenera kupititsa patsogolo kuzindikira za kupewa ngozi, kukhazikitsa kuganiza mozama, ndikuwongolera kuchuluka kwa zida zowongolera zoopsa.Mabizinesi akuyenera kulemekeza msika, kuopa msika, ndikuwongolera momwe amagwirira ntchito.Mabizinesi "otuluka" ayenera kudziwa bwino malamulo amsika wapadziko lonse lapansi, kupanga mapulani oyankha mwadzidzidzi, ndikupewa kusakidwa ndi kupotozedwa ndi ndalama zongopeka zakunja.Mabizinesi omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama zaku China akuyenera kuphunzira kuchokera pazomwe adakumana nazo komanso maphunziro.
Chachiwiri ndikufulumizitsa ntchito yopititsa patsogolo tsogolo la nickel ku China ndikukweza mitengo yamitengo yazinthu zambiri zaku China.The "nickel futures event" ikuwonetsa kufunikira ndi kufulumira kwakulimbikitsa kulimbikitsa tsogolo lazitsulo zosakhala ndi chitsulo, makamaka pankhani yopititsa patsogolo kulimbikitsa mbale zapadziko lonse lapansi za aluminiyamu, faifi tambala, nthaka ndi mitundu ina.Pansi pa mapangidwe apamwamba, ngati dziko lothandizira lingatengere njira yogulitsira malonda ndi malonda a "pulatifomu yapadziko lonse, yobwereketsa, kugulitsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali, ndi chipembedzo cha RMB", sichidzangokhazikitsa chithunzi cha China cha msika wolimba. -malonda okhazikika, komanso kukulitsa luso lamitengo yazinthu zambiri zaku China.Ithanso kuchepetsa chiwopsezo cha mabizinesi akunja omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama ku China.Kuphatikiza apo, ndikofunikira kulimbikitsa kafukufuku wokhudza kusintha kwamakampani a faifi tambala, ndikukulitsa kulima mitundu yamtsogolo ya nickel.
Za Kukweza Nickel Supply Chain yaku China
Zolimbikitsa Zina kuchokera ku Nkhani Zachitetezo
Choyamba, tsatirani kuganiza mozama ndikuchitapo kanthu popewa komanso kuwongolera ngozi.Makampani osakhala achitsulo ali ndi mawonekedwe a malonda, internationalization ndi zachuma.Chifukwa chake, mabizinesi am'mafakitale akuyenera kupititsa patsogolo kuzindikira za kupewa ngozi, kukhazikitsa kuganiza mozama, ndikuwongolera kuchuluka kwa zida zowongolera zoopsa.Mabizinesi akuyenera kulemekeza msika, kuopa msika, ndikuwongolera momwe amagwirira ntchito.Mabizinesi "otuluka" ayenera kudziwa bwino malamulo amsika wapadziko lonse lapansi, kupanga mapulani oyankha mwadzidzidzi, ndikupewa kusakidwa ndi kupotozedwa ndi ndalama zongopeka zakunja.Mabizinesi omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama zaku China akuyenera kuphunzira kuchokera pazomwe adakumana nazo komanso maphunziro.
Chachiwiri ndikufulumizitsa ntchito yopititsa patsogolo tsogolo la nickel ku China ndikukweza mitengo yamitengo yazinthu zambiri zaku China."Zochitika zam'tsogolo za nickel" zikuwonetsa kufunikira ndi kufulumira kwakulimbikitsa kufalikira kwa zitsulo zam'tsogolo zopanda chitsulo, makamaka pankhani ya Kukwezeleza mbale zapadziko lonse lapansi za aluminiyamu, faifi tambala, zinki ndi mitundu ina ikupita patsogolo.Pansi pa mapangidwe apamwamba, ngati dziko lothandizira lingatengere njira yogulitsira malonda ndi malonda a "pulatifomu yapadziko lonse, yobwereketsa, kugulitsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali, ndi chipembedzo cha RMB", sichidzangokhazikitsa chithunzi cha China cha msika wolimba. -malonda okhazikika, komanso kukulitsa luso lamitengo yazinthu zambiri zaku China.Ithanso kuchepetsa chiwopsezo cha mabizinesi akunja omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama ku China.Kuphatikiza apo, ndikofunikira kulimbikitsa kafukufuku wokhudza kusintha kwamakampani a faifi tambala, ndikukulitsa kulima mitundu yamtsogolo ya nickel.
Nthawi yotumiza: Apr-12-2022