Chidule:Kuyambira chiyambi cha zaka za zana latsopano, ndi kupambana mosalekeza kwa ukadaulo wa zida za fakitale ya nickel komanso kutukuka kwachangu kwamakampani opanga mphamvu zatsopano, machitidwe amakampani a nickel padziko lonse lapansi asintha kwambiri, ndipo mabizinesi omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama ku China atenga gawo lofunikira pakukweza. kusintha kwa mtundu wa fakitale ya nickel padziko lonse lapansi.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, yathandizanso kwambiri pachitetezo chapadziko lonse lapansi cha nickel supply chain.
Lemekezani Msika ndi Kulemekeza Msika——Momwe Mungasinthire Chitetezo cha Nickel Supply Chain cha China kuchokera ku "Nickel Futures Incident"
Kuyambira kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 1900, ndi kupita patsogolo kopitilira muyeso kwaukadaulo wa zida zama fakitale komanso kutukuka kwachangu kwamakampani opanga mphamvu zatsopano, njira yapadziko lonse lapansi ya nickel yasintha kwambiri, ndipo mabizinesi omwe amathandizidwa ndi China achita gawo lofunikira kwambiri kulimbikitsa kukonzanso kwapadziko lonse lapansi fakitale ya nickel.Panthawi imodzimodziyo, yathandizanso kwambiri pachitetezo chapadziko lonse lapansi cha nickel supply chain.Koma mtengo wa London nickel futures mu Marichi chaka chino udakwera ndi 248% yomwe sinachitike m'masiku awiri, ndikuwononga kwambiri makampani enieni kuphatikiza China.Kuti izi zitheke, kuchokera pakusintha kwamakampani a faifi tambala m'zaka zaposachedwa, kuphatikiza ndi "zochitika zam'tsogolo za nickel", wolemba amalankhula za momwe angapititsire chitetezo cha makina a nickel ku China.
Zosintha pamachitidwe amakampani a nickel padziko lonse lapansi
Pankhani ya kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe amamwa, kugwiritsa ntchito faifi kwakula kwambiri, ndipo dziko la China ndilomwe limathandizira kwambiri pakugwiritsa ntchito faifi padziko lonse lapansi.Malinga ndi ziwerengero za Nickel Industry Branch ya China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, mu 2021, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa nickel padziko lonse lapansi kudzafika matani 2.76 miliyoni, kuwonjezeka kwa chaka ndi 15.9% ndi 1.5 kuwirikiza mu 2001. Iwo, mu 2021, China yaiwisi nickel mowa adzafika matani 1.542 miliyoni, chaka ndi chaka chiwonjezeko 14%, 18 kuwirikiza mowa mu 2001, ndi kuchuluka kwa mowa padziko lonse chawonjezeka kuchokera 4.5% mu 2001 mpaka panopa 56. %.Titha kunena kuti 90% ya kuchuluka kwa nickel padziko lonse lapansi kuyambira kumayambiriro kwa zaka za zana latsopano kudachokera ku China.
Malinga ndi momwe amagwiritsira ntchito, kugwiritsa ntchito zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri kumakhala kokhazikika, ndipo chiwerengero cha nickel chomwe chimagwiritsidwa ntchito m'munda wa batri chikuwonjezeka.M'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, gawo lamagetsi latsopano likutsogola kukula kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka faifi tambala padziko lonse lapansi.Malinga ndi ziwerengero, mu 2001, mu kapangidwe ka faifi tambala ku China, faifi tambala wa zitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri anali pafupifupi 70%, faifi tambala pa electroplating anali 15%, ndi faifi tambala kwa mabatire ndi 5%.Pofika chaka cha 2021, chiwerengero cha nickel chomwe chimagwiritsidwa ntchito muzitsulo zosapanga dzimbiri muzakudya za nickel ku China chidzakhala pafupifupi 74%;chiŵerengero cha faifi tambala ogwiritsidwa ntchito m’mabatire chidzakwera kufika pa 15%;gawo la faifi tambala wogwiritsiridwa ntchito mu electroplating lidzatsika mpaka 5%.Sizinayambe zawonekerapo kuti pamene makampani atsopano amagetsi akulowa mofulumira, kufunikira kwa nickel kudzawonjezeka, ndipo gawo la mabatire muzogwiritsira ntchito lidzawonjezeka.
Kuchokera pamalingaliro amtundu wazinthu zopangira, zida za nickel zasinthidwa kuchoka ku nickel sulfide ore makamaka kupita ku laterite nickel ore ndi nickel sulfide ore zomwe zimalamuliridwa pamodzi.Zinthu zakale za nickel zinali makamaka nickel sulfide ore yokhala ndi chuma chambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo zida za nickel sulfide zidakhazikika makamaka ku Australia, Canada, Russia, China ndi mayiko ena, zomwe zimawerengera zoposa 50% ya nkhokwe zonse zapadziko lonse lapansi panthawiyo.Kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa zaka za zana latsopano, ndi kugwiritsa ntchito ndi kulimbikitsa teknoloji ya laterite nickel ore-nickel-iron ku China, laterite nickel ore ku Indonesia ndi Philippines yapangidwa ndikugwiritsidwa ntchito pamlingo waukulu.Mu 2021, dziko la Indonesia lidzakhala dziko lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi lopanga faifi tambala, zomwe ndi zotsatira za kuphatikiza kwaukadaulo waku China, likulu ndi zinthu zaku Indonesia.Mgwirizano wapakati pa China ndi Indonesia wathandiza kwambiri pakukula ndi kukhazikika kwa msika wapadziko lonse wa faifi tambala.
Kuchokera pamawonekedwe azinthu, zinthu za faifi tambala pagawo lozungulira zikukula mosiyanasiyana.Malinga ndi ziwerengero za Nthambi ya Nickel Industry, mu 2001, mu kupanga faifi yapadziko lonse lapansi, nickel yoyengedwa ndiyo inali malo akuluakulu, kuphatikizapo, gawo laling'ono linali ferronickel ndi nickel salt;pofika chaka cha 2021, pakupanga faifi tambala wapadziko lonse lapansi, kupanga faifi woyengedwa kwatsika mpaka 33%, pomwe gawo la NPI (nickel pig iron) lokhala ndi faifi lakwera kufika 50%, komanso nickel-iron ndi faifi tambala. mchere umakhala 17%.Zikuyembekezeka kuti pofika chaka cha 2025, kuchuluka kwa faifi woyengedwa padziko lonse lapansi kutsika kwambiri.Kuphatikiza apo, potengera kapangidwe kazinthu zaku China, pafupifupi 63% yazogulitsa ndi NPI (chitsulo cha nickel pig iron), pafupifupi 25% yazogulitsa ndi faifi woyengedwa, ndipo pafupifupi 12% yazogulitsa ndi mchere wa nickel.
Pakuwona kusintha kwa mabungwe amsika, mabizinesi azinsinsi akhala akutsogolera pamsika wa nickel ku China komanso padziko lonse lapansi.Malinga ndi ziwerengero zochokera kunthambi ya Nickel Industry, pakati pa matani 677,000 a faifi tambala ku China mu 2021, mabizinesi asanu apamwamba kwambiri, kuphatikiza Shandong Xinhai, Qingshan Viwanda, Delong Nickel, Tangshan Kaiyuan, Suqian Xiangxiang, ndi Guangxi Yinyi, adapanga pulayimale. nickel.ndi 62.8%.Makamaka potengera kapangidwe ka mafakitale akunja, mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono amapitilira 75% yamabizinesi omwe ali ndi ndalama zakunja, komanso kupangidwa kwathunthu kwa mafakitale a laterite nickel mine-nickel-iron-stainless steel production ku Indonesia.
"Nickel futures event" imakhudza kwambiri msika
Zowonongeka ndi zovuta zowululidwa
Choyamba, mtengo wa tsogolo la nickel LME unakwera mwamphamvu kuyambira pa Marichi 7 mpaka 8, ndikuwonjezeka kwa 248% m'masiku awiri, zomwe zidapangitsa kuyimitsidwa kwa msika wam'tsogolo wa LME komanso kukwera ndi kugwa kosalekeza kwa faifi tambala wa Shanghai pa Shanghai Futures. Kusinthana.Mtengo wam'tsogolo sikuti umangotaya tanthauzo lake pamtengo wamalo, komanso umabweretsa zopinga ndi zovuta kuti mabizinesi agule zida zopangira ndi hedging.Zimasokonezanso kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka faifi tambala kumtunda ndi kunsi kwa mtsinje, kuwononga kwambiri faifi tambala wapadziko lonse ndi zinthu zina za m'mwamba ndi pansi.
Chachiwiri ndi chakuti "chochitika cha tsogolo la nickel" ndi chifukwa chosowa chidziwitso chowongolera zoopsa zamakampani, kusowa kwa chidwi chamakampani pamsika wamtsogolo wazachuma, kusakwanira kowongolera ziwopsezo pamsika wamtsogolo wa LME, komanso kukwera kwa kusintha kwa geopolitical. .Komabe, kuchokera kuzinthu zamkati, chochitika ichi chawonetsa vuto lomwe msika wamakono akumadzulo uli kutali ndi malo opangira ndi kugwiritsira ntchito, sungathe kukwaniritsa zofunikira zamakampani enieni, komanso chitukuko cha tsogolo la nickel derivatives sichinapitirire. ndi chitukuko ndi kusintha kwa makampani.Pakalipano, chuma chotukuka monga Kumadzulo sali ogula kwambiri zitsulo zopanda chitsulo kapena opanga zazikulu.Ngakhale kuti malo osungiramo katundu ali padziko lonse lapansi, malo ambiri osungiramo katundu ndi makampani osungiramo katundu amayendetsedwa ndi amalonda akale a ku Ulaya.Nthawi yomweyo, chifukwa chosowa njira zowongolera zoopsa, Pali zoopsa zobisika pamene makampani amagwiritsa ntchito zida zawo zam'tsogolo.Kuonjezera apo, chitukuko cha zotumphukira za nickel sichinapitirire, zomwe zawonjezeranso kuopsa kwa malonda a makampani okhudzana ndi nickel okhudzana ndi zotumphukira akamagwiritsa ntchito kusunga mtengo wazinthu.
Za Kukweza Nickel Supply Chain yaku China
Zolimbikitsa Zina kuchokera ku Nkhani Zachitetezo
Choyamba, tsatirani kuganiza mozama ndikuchitapo kanthu popewa komanso kuwongolera ngozi.Makampani osakhala achitsulo ali ndi mawonekedwe a malonda, internationalization ndi ndalama.Chifukwa chake, mabizinesi am'mafakitale akuyenera kupititsa patsogolo kuzindikira za kupewa ngozi, kukhazikitsa kuganiza mozama, ndikuwongolera kuchuluka kwa zida zowongolera zoopsa.Mabizinesi akuyenera kulemekeza msika, kuopa msika, ndikuwongolera momwe amagwirira ntchito.Mabizinesi "otuluka" ayenera kudziwa bwino malamulo amsika wapadziko lonse lapansi, kupanga mapulani oyankha mwadzidzidzi, ndikupewa kusakidwa ndi kupotozedwa ndi ndalama zongopeka zakunja.Mabizinesi omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama zaku China akuyenera kuphunzira kuchokera pazomwe adakumana nazo komanso maphunziro.
Chachiwiri ndikufulumizitsa ntchito yopititsa patsogolo tsogolo la nickel ku China ndikukweza mitengo yamtengo wapatali yazinthu zambiri zaku China.The "nickel futures event" ikuwonetsa kufunikira ndi kufulumira kwakulimbikitsa kulimbikitsa tsogolo lazitsulo zosakhala ndi chitsulo, makamaka pankhani yopititsa patsogolo kulimbikitsa mbale zapadziko lonse lapansi za aluminiyamu, faifi tambala, nthaka ndi mitundu ina.Pansi pa kapangidwe kapamwamba, ngati dziko lothandizira lingatengere njira yogulira ndi kugulitsa mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya "pulatifomu yapadziko lonse, yotumiza zolumikizana, kugulitsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali, ndi chipembedzo cha RMB", sichidzangokhazikitsa chithunzi cha China cha msika wokhazikika. -malonda okhazikika, komanso kukulitsa luso lamitengo yazinthu zambiri zaku China.Ithanso kuchepetsa chiwopsezo cha mabizinesi akunja omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama ku China.Kuphatikiza apo, ndikofunikira kulimbikitsa kafukufuku wokhudza kusintha kwamakampani a faifi tambala, ndikukulitsa kulima mitundu yamtsogolo ya nickel.
Za Kukweza Nickel Supply Chain yaku China
Zolimbikitsa Zina kuchokera ku Nkhani Zachitetezo
Choyamba, tsatirani kuganiza mozama ndikuchitapo kanthu popewa komanso kuwongolera ngozi.Makampani osakhala achitsulo ali ndi mawonekedwe a malonda, internationalization ndi ndalama.Chifukwa chake, mabizinesi am'mafakitale akuyenera kupititsa patsogolo kuzindikira za kupewa ngozi, kukhazikitsa kuganiza mozama, ndikuwongolera kuchuluka kwa zida zowongolera zoopsa.Mabizinesi akuyenera kulemekeza msika, kuopa msika, ndikuwongolera momwe amagwirira ntchito.Mabizinesi "otuluka" ayenera kudziwa bwino malamulo amsika wapadziko lonse lapansi, kupanga mapulani oyankha mwadzidzidzi, ndikupewa kusakidwa ndi kupotozedwa ndi ndalama zongopeka zakunja.Mabizinesi omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama zaku China akuyenera kuphunzira kuchokera pazomwe adakumana nazo komanso maphunziro.
Chachiwiri ndikufulumizitsa ntchito yopititsa patsogolo tsogolo la nickel ku China ndikukweza mitengo yamtengo wapatali yazinthu zambiri zaku China."Zochitika zam'tsogolo za nickel" zikuwonetsa kufunikira ndi kufulumira kwakulimbikitsa kulimbikitsa tsogolo lazitsulo zopanda chitsulo, makamaka pankhani ya Kukwezeleza mbale zapadziko lonse lapansi za aluminiyamu, faifi tambala, zinki ndi mitundu ina ikupita patsogolo.Pansi pa kapangidwe kapamwamba, ngati dziko lothandizira lingatengere njira yogulira ndi kugulitsa mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya "pulatifomu yapadziko lonse, yotumiza zolumikizana, kugulitsa mtengo wamtengo wapatali, ndi chipembedzo cha RMB", sichidzangokhazikitsa chithunzi cha China cha msika wokhazikika. -malonda okhazikika, komanso kukulitsa luso lamitengo yazinthu zambiri zaku China.Ithanso kuchepetsa chiwopsezo cha mabizinesi akunja omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama ku China.Kuphatikiza apo, ndikofunikira kulimbikitsa kafukufuku wokhudza kusintha kwamakampani a faifi tambala, ndikukulitsa kulima mitundu yamtsogolo ya nickel.
Nthawi yotumiza: Apr-12-2022